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It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains a rather hard question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus United.

Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the force he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.